Analyzing where the New York Mets stand with one month to go (2024)

“Most legends should be regarded with suspicion. Although, if one is to have any fun out of life, one should proceed with the understanding that reminiscences are to be enjoyed, not authenticated.”
—“Can’t Anybody Here Play This Game?” Jimmy Breslin

The New York Mets did their part. Over the weekend and indeed over their entire three-city trip, the Mets handled their business to improve their position in the National League wild-card race. A sweep of the moribund Chicago White Sox capped off a 7-3 trip, and while, yes, you can lament that they were mere outs away from going 9-1, you can still concede you’d have taken 7-3 a week and a half ago.

Especially when that weekend sweep of the White Sox is paired with Atlanta losing three of four to the Philadelphia Phillies, trimming a four-game lead to one over four days.

As the calendar has turned to September, let’s re-examine the shifting sands of the NL wild-card race.

Arizona Diamondbacks (77-60)

The Mets halted Arizona’s six-game winning streak by taking two of three last week, showing an ability to hold down the best offense in baseball. They came within four outs of a sweep, in fact, and looked for much of the series like the better team.

Good news for the Mets: That last sentence up there.

Bad news for the Mets: Part of the reason the Mets looked better? The guys not playing that series for Arizona. The Mets were fortunate to avoid Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly in the rotation, and the Diamondbacks’ lineup isn’t quite as potent without MVP candidate Ketel Marte and Christian Walker. Both those hitters could return early this week.

Remaining schedule strength: 11th easiest in NL.

The Mets’ best chance to make up ground: It’s probably this week. The Diamondbacks finish a wraparound four-game series with the Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday before going on the road for series with San Francisco and Houston.

San Diego Padres (78-61)

The Mets split their series in San Diego last weekend, part of an overall trend in which the Padres have fallen off their sweltering pace from earlier in August. After a 19-4 run, San Diego is 9-8 in its last 17.

Good news for the Mets: Has the clock struck midnight on Jurickson Profar’s outstanding season? Profar, who’s led the NL in on-base percentage all season, is in his deepest slump of the year.

Bad news for the Mets: Joe Musgrove is back and pitching better than he has all season, and Yu Darvish could be back by the end of the season for San Diego, placing its rotation alongside its bullpen as one of the league’s best.

Remaining schedule strength: 4th easiest in NL.

The Mets’ best chance to make up ground: The final week of the season. The Padres head to Chavez Ravine for three with the Dodgers before finishing the season in Arizona against the Diamondbacks.

Atlanta Braves (74-63)

Atlanta couldn’t hang on to a 2-0 lead Sunday night, losing in 11 innings to drop three of four to the Phillies. That solidifies Philadelphia’s position in first place and brings the Mets back within a game of Atlanta.

Good news for the Mets: Did you see the bottom half of the Atlanta order Sunday night?

6. Whit Merrifield (released earlier this season)
7. Jarred Kelenic (.672 OPS this season), replaced by Ramón Laureano (released earlier this season)
8. Orlando Arcia (.642 OPS this season)
9. Gio Urshela (released earlier this season), replaced by Luke Williams (career .571 OPS)

This is not the deep lineup that has tortured the National League the last several years.

Bad news for the Mets: Atlanta’s starting rotation has mitigated that shallow lineup with lights-out ball of late. Its starters have gone 21 straight games without allowing more than three runs, and they’ve yielded zero or one run in eight of those games. Also, what you’re about to read constitutes bad news for the Mets.

Remaining schedule strength: 2nd easiest in NL.

The Mets’ best chance to make up ground: If you want something done, do it yourself. The Mets visit Atlanta for three in the final week of the season.

New York Mets (73-64)

Good news for the Mets: The starting rotation has rounded into form, consistently giving New York a chance to win. Sean Manaea is pitching like an ace, David Peterson isn’t far behind, and Luis Severino and Jose Quintana have rebounded from earlier slumps. This rotation is good enough to let the offense do its thing.

Bad news for the Mets: The continuing uncertainty around Dedniel Núñez means there’s still no reliable bridge to Edwin Díaz in the ninth inning — and that most every tight game is going to be a late-inning roller coaster.

Remaining schedule strength: 13th easiest in NL.

The Mets’ toughest stretch: Four in Queens against the Phillies followed by three in Atlanta. To make the playoffs, the Mets will have to beat their rivals.

Chicago Cubs (71-66)

Winners of 12 of their last 15, the Cubs have gotten themselves back onto the fringes of the race by taking advantage of an especially soft spot in their schedule.

Good news for the Mets: The schedule doesn’t stay that easy. The Cubs get the New York Yankees and Dodgers in consecutive series starting this weekend. And Chicago is the team that needs to make up ground.

Bad news for the Mets: It still requires solid play to beat mediocre teams, and the Cubs are getting big-time production from Seiya Suzuki and Pete Crow-Armstrong in the outfield, with Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga at the head of a strong rotation. If some other pieces — hey, Cody Bellinger and Dansby Swanson — get in gear, the Cubs can make legitimate noise.

Seiya Suzuki goes the opposite way to tie the game. 💪 pic.twitter.com/Dp03oDnQyW

— MLB (@MLB) August 27, 2024

Remaining schedule strength: 6th easiest in NL.

The Mets’ best chance to maintain separation: While the Cubs get the Yankees and Dodgers, the Mets have the Cincinnati Reds and Toronto Blue Jays. They should push their edge over Chicago back out to a comfortable spot over that stretch.

The exposition

The Mets polished off a successful road trip by sweeping the White Sox. Their 73-64 record is a season-best nine games over .500, and they trail Atlanta for the final wild card by one.

The Red Sox lost a rubber game in Detroit Sunday to drop to 70-67, 4 1/2 games in arrears of the final wild card in the American League.

The Reds snagged the finale of a four-game set with the Milwaukee Brewers to avoid a sweep. Cincinnati had lost six of seven and now sits at 65-73. Houston visits Great American Ball Park before the Reds come to Queens this weekend.

The pitching possibles

v. Boston

RHP Luis Severino (9-6, 3.96 ERA) v. RHP Brayan Bello (12-6, 4.66 ERA)
LHP David Peterson (8-1, 2.83) v. RHP Kutter Crawford (8-12, 4.12)
RHP Tylor Megill (3-5, 4.82) v. RHP Tanner Houck (8-9, 3.12)

v. Cincinnati

LHP Jose Quintana (7-9, 4.27) v. RHP Nick Martinez (6-6, 3.78)
LHP Sean Manaea (11-5, 3.35) v. RHP Rhett Lowder (0-1, 2.25)
RHP Luis Severino v. LHP Brandon Williamson (0-0, 5.40)

Injury updates

Red = 60-day IL
Orange = 15-day IL
Blue = 10-day IL

• The Mets are waiting to see how Núñez’s forearm feels after a couple days of rest before deciding whether to get an MRI. After recovering from his rehab outing just fine, the right-hander didn’t rebound from his lone major-league outing after coming off the IL, earning another stint because of soreness in his arm.
• Scott is throwing off a mound now. The club is especially motivated to see him in major-league action by the end of the season to get a sense of his elbow health.
• Blackburn remains on track to return when eligible in Toronto next week.
• Reid-Foley’s less likely now to return this season, with manager Carlos Mendoza mentioning last week that time is running out for the right-hander to ramp back up after a longer down period than initially expected.

Minor-league schedule

Triple A: Syracuse v. Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (New York, AL)
Double A: Binghamton v. Somerset (New York, AL)
High A: Brooklyn v. Wilmington (Washington)
Low A: St. Lucie at Clearwater (Philadelphia)

Wild-card schedule

Arizona (77-60): v. Los Angeles¹, at San Francisco³, at Houston³
San Diego (78-61): v. Detroit³, v. San Francisco³
Atlanta (74-63): v. Colorado³, v. Toronto³
Chicago (71-66): v. Pittsburgh³, v. New York Yankees³

Last week in Mets

• Takeaways on a series sweep in Chicago, starting with Sean Manaea as the ace
• How beating up the White Sox has helped the Mets’ playoff odds
• How Jesse Winker adapted to a new role with aplomb
• What the 1962 Mets think about today’s White Sox
• Ken Rosenthal went deep in
• How the Mets rebounded, again, from a brutal loss
• What Manaea has overhauled to find this elite form
• TWIM: Is Lindor having the best season ever by a Mets position player?

A note on the epigraph

Rereading a bunch of “Can’t Anybody Here Play This Game?” was maybe the most fun part of that story on the ’62 Mets. It’s such a delight.

Trivia time

The 1962 Mets finished with a losing record against all but one opponent. Who’s the only team they managed to play to an even 9-9 draw that season?

(I’ll reply to the correct answer in the comments.)

(Top photo of Mets celebrating Sunday’s win: Kamil Krzaczynski / USA Today)

Tim Britton is a senior writer for The Athletic covering the New York Mets. He has covered Major League Baseball since 2009 and the Mets since 2018. Prior to joining The Athletic, he spent seven seasons on the Red Sox beat for the Providence Journal. He has also contributed to Baseball Prospectus, NBC Sports Boston, MLB.com and Yahoo Sports. Follow Tim on Twitter @TimBritton